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Teori Angsa Hitam - Riwayat revisi
2026-09-16T02:09:59Z
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Maintenance script: Presentation V4: sitasi, referensi, Math, Wikimedia Commons, dan atribusi
2026-08-25T08:57:40Z
<p>Presentation V4: sitasi, referensi, Math, Wikimedia Commons, dan atribusi</p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Revisi sebelumnya</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revisi per 25 Agustus 2026 08.57</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1">Baris 1:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Baris 1:</td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Teori Angsa Hitam''' ([[Bahasa Inggris|Inggris]]: ''Black swan theory'') merujuk pada peristiwa langka yang berdampak besar, sulit diprediksi dan di luar perkiraan biasa. Teori ini dideskripsikan oleh [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] dalam bukunya ''[[The Black Swan (buku)|The Black Swan]]'' tahun 2007. Kriteria untuk mengidentifikasi peristiwa ''black swan'' adalah:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Cygnus_Atratus_Singapore.jpg|thumb|right|280px|Cygnus Atratus Singapore]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Teori Angsa Hitam''' ([[Bahasa Inggris|Inggris]]: ''Black swan theory'') merujuk pada peristiwa langka yang berdampak besar, sulit diprediksi dan di luar perkiraan biasa. Teori ini dideskripsikan oleh [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] dalam bukunya ''[[The Black Swan (buku)|The Black Swan]]'' tahun 2007.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><ref>[http://178.248.238.87/blog/for-beginners/peristiwa-black-swan/ Apa itu peristiwa angsa hitam?]. ''LiteFinance''.</ref> </ins>Kriteria untuk mengidentifikasi peristiwa ''black swan'' adalah:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Muncul secara mengejutkan</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Muncul secara mengejutkan</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Berpengaruh besar</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Berpengaruh besar</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Latar Belakang ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Latar Belakang ==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Menurut Taleb, banyak penemuan ilmiah merupakan fenomena "angsa hitam" - terjadi dengan tidak disengaja dan tidak diramalkan, contohnya adalah kemunculan [[internet]], komputer pribadi, [[Perang Dunia I]], dan peristiwa 11 September 2001.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Menurut Taleb, banyak penemuan ilmiah merupakan fenomena "angsa hitam" - terjadi dengan tidak disengaja dan tidak diramalkan, contohnya adalah kemunculan [[internet]], komputer pribadi, [[Perang Dunia I]], dan peristiwa 11 September 2001.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Berdasarkan pendapat Taleb, karena telah diharapkan dengan sangat pasti bahwa pandemi global pada akhirnya akan terjadi, [[pandemi COVID-19]] bukanlah angsa hitam, tetapi dianggap sebagai angsa putih; peristiwa semacam itu memiliki pengaruh besar, tetapi kompatibel dengan properti statistik.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Berdasarkan pendapat Taleb, karena telah diharapkan dengan sangat pasti bahwa pandemi global pada akhirnya akan terjadi, [[pandemi COVID-19]] bukanlah angsa hitam, tetapi dianggap sebagai angsa putih; peristiwa semacam itu memiliki pengaruh besar, tetapi kompatibel dengan properti statistik.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb. [https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-socialism-the-government-is-bailing-out-investors-managers-not-you-3b31a67bff4a Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You]. ''medium.com''. 25 March 2020.</ref></ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Pranala luar ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Pranala luar ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [http://www.buzzle.com/articles/135661.html The Black Swan Theory of Chance] - A treatise regarding unpredictable aspects of life. Guardian Newspapers, August 2008.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [http://www.buzzle.com/articles/135661.html The Black Swan Theory of Chance] - A treatise regarding unpredictable aspects of life. Guardian Newspapers, August 2008.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">== Sumber dan atribusi ==</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Sumber </del>dan <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">atribusi ==</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Konten artikel ini diadaptasi dari [https://id.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title</ins>=<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Teori+Angsa+Hitam&oldid</ins>=<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">28914056 Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia], revisi 28914056 (2026-01-31T14:48:35Z), yang tersedia berdasarkan lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi-BerbagiSerupa (CC BY-SA). Gambar pada artikel ini bersumber dari Wikimedia Commons </ins>dan <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">mengikuti ketentuan lisensi masing-masing berkas. Mohon gunakan konten dan media secara bijak serta sesuai dengan ketentuan lisensi yang berlaku.</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Konten artikel ini diadaptasi dari [https://id.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Teori+Angsa+Hitam&oldid=28914056 Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia], revisi 28914056 (2026</del>-<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">01</del>-<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">31T14:48:35Z), yang tersedia berdasarkan lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi</del>-<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">BerbagiSerupa (CC BY</del>-<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">SA). Mohon gunakan konten ini secara bijak serta sesuai dengan ketentuan lisensi yang berlaku.</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><!</ins>-- <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">WIKI_UNISSULA_PRESENTATION_V4 </ins>--<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">></ins></div></td></tr>
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Maintenance script: Impor teks terkontrol dari Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia; revisi 28914056; atribusi sumber disertakan.
2026-08-25T08:21:12Z
<p>Impor teks terkontrol dari Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia; revisi 28914056; atribusi sumber disertakan.</p>
<p><b>Halaman baru</b></p><div>'''Teori Angsa Hitam''' ([[Bahasa Inggris|Inggris]]: ''Black swan theory'') merujuk pada peristiwa langka yang berdampak besar, sulit diprediksi dan di luar perkiraan biasa. Teori ini dideskripsikan oleh [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]] dalam bukunya ''[[The Black Swan (buku)|The Black Swan]]'' tahun 2007. Kriteria untuk mengidentifikasi peristiwa ''black swan'' adalah:<br />
* Muncul secara mengejutkan<br />
* Berpengaruh besar<br />
* Setelah muncul dijelaskan oleh peninjauan ke belakang manusia<br />
<br />
== Latar Belakang ==<br />
<br />
Menurut Taleb, banyak penemuan ilmiah merupakan fenomena "angsa hitam" - terjadi dengan tidak disengaja dan tidak diramalkan, contohnya adalah kemunculan [[internet]], komputer pribadi, [[Perang Dunia I]], dan peristiwa 11 September 2001.<br />
<br />
Berdasarkan pendapat Taleb, karena telah diharapkan dengan sangat pasti bahwa pandemi global pada akhirnya akan terjadi, [[pandemi COVID-19]] bukanlah angsa hitam, tetapi dianggap sebagai angsa putih; peristiwa semacam itu memiliki pengaruh besar, tetapi kompatibel dengan properti statistik.<br />
<br />
== Referensi ==<br />
<br />
<br />
== Pranala luar ==<br />
* [http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html The Fourth Quadrant and The Limits of Statistics] -Taleb's idea on the limits of statistics<br />
* [http://www.buzzle.com/articles/135661.html The Black Swan Theory of Chance] - A treatise regarding unpredictable aspects of life. Guardian Newspapers, August 2008.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== Sumber dan atribusi ==<br />
<br />
Konten artikel ini diadaptasi dari [https://id.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Teori+Angsa+Hitam&oldid=28914056 Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia], revisi 28914056 (2026-01-31T14:48:35Z), yang tersedia berdasarkan lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi-BerbagiSerupa (CC BY-SA). Mohon gunakan konten ini secara bijak serta sesuai dengan ketentuan lisensi yang berlaku.</div>
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